“In times of change, learners inherit the earth, while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists”.

Last quarter I wrote that I was optimistic about our country’s ability to weather a crisis like COVID-19, and while the last 3 months have been challenging, we are beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel.

In these difficult times it is easy to think we are alone. Especially when our support systems are far away or have been reduced to virtual connections.

We closed 2019 on a strong note as the markets logged new record highs. On the surface, as tensions appear to ease with China on the back of a “phase 1” trade deal, and the threat of a potential recession fades, we forge ahead into the new year with only minor headwinds – unlike the close of 2018.

Despite the media wanting to talk us into a recession, the U.S. economy actually looks fairly healthy, thanks to the consumer. At an unemployment rate of 3.5%, the U.S. consumer is around 70% of the economy. That industrial production has slowed is not a surprise as we have been expecting this to occur.

Having passed the halfway mark for the year, the economy continues to proceed at this late stage in the business cycle with resiliency. As we have stated before and as it continues to look, the US economy is still growing despite its growing more slowly this year. Some parts of the economy are growing faster than others, just not as strong as it was a year ago.

Happy Anniversary to the stock market! The U.S. bull market hit its 10th anniversary and is now officially the longest-running bull market in history. Feel free to celebrate with some cake and ice cream. The first quarter of 2019 shows what can happen when uncertainties are removed from the market.

In a year that started with so much promise, December capped off a fourth-quarter that ended with a thud as the market was faced with too much uncertainty. You would have thought we entered a recession given the sharp rise in volatility.

The U.S. economy continues to be the little engine that could. Many different measures of economic performance continue to advance at an accelerating growth rate including industrial production, retail sales and employment. While this sounds good, economies do not fire on all cylinders without pausing, and it appears the pause we anticipate is still on target.