We'll Leave The Light On For You
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was released by the Commerce Department this week and rose 0.1% in August, which puts the 12-month inflation rate at 2.2%. Stripping out food and energy, the core PCE number rose 2.7% in August compared to the prior year, which aligned with the economist’s expectations. These two readings indicate that inflation is continuing to recede to the Federal Reserve’s desired 2% target and that expected future interest rate cuts are likely to occur. Several other key data figures were released this week, as well, including personal income which is up 5.6% over the past year including 0.2% in August. Additionally, private sector wage growth was up 0.5% for the month of August and has increased 6.3% over the past year.
Any future interest rate reductions from the Fed should be helpful, especially considering the record levels of debt on U.S. consumer’s balance sheet. U.S. household debt was at a record $17.80 trillion at the end of the second quarter of 2024. The delinquencies on credit card balances have been increasing and now comprise $1.14 trillion of that $17 trillion-plus total. The percentage of credit card balances that fall into the category of seriously delinquent – 90+ days – was at 10.9% in the second quarter of this year. This is the highest level of seriously delinquent credit card balances since the first quarter of 2012.
Despite the Fed’s interest rate cut last week, investors have continued to pile into money market funds. Since last week’s announcement of a 0.50% rate reduction, an additional $126 billion has been transferred into money market accounts, which now total a record $6.76 trillion. The dividend income from money market funds swelled to over $27 billion for the month of August alone. While money market yields have slightly declined over the past several months, these funds are still proving to be an attractive spot for investors wanting to keep some cash on the sidelines.
The S&P 500 index’s quarterly rebalancing occurred this week and three companies were removed from the widely followed index. American Airlines, Etsy, and Bio-Rad Laboratories were all taken out of the index and replaced by a pair of information technology companies and a firm that is part of the financials sector. Palantir Technologies and Dell Technologies were added to the index along with insurer Erie Indemnity. The inclusion of both Palantir and Dell underscores the emphasis on technology and artificial intelligence and how firms with AI capabilities are reshaping the economy.
We found out the fate this week of Caroline Ellison, who was the key witness and former girlfriend to Sam Bankman-Fried, the architect of one of the largest financial frauds in history. The latter was the founder of the crypto exchange FTX, which collapsed in late 2022. Ellison cooperated with federal authorities and testified against Bankman-Fried, who was sentenced to 25 years in prison for defrauding FTX customers of billions of dollars. Ellison ran the investment firm attached to FTX, Alameda Research, and engaged in a myriad of transgressions in conjunction with Bankman-Fried ultimately leading her to plead guilty to seven counts of fraud, conspiracy, and money laundering in December 2022. Her penalty was handed down this week, as a judge sentenced her to two years in prison and ordered Ellison to forfeit $11 billion. Ellison must also surrender any future income to the government she derives from selling the rights to her sordid financial misdeeds.
Private equity giant Blackstone has agreed to sell the Motel 6 chain to Oyo, a hotel operator based in India for $525 million in an all-cash deal. The transaction should be completed in the fourth quarter of this year. Blackstone bought Motel 6 in 2012 for $1.9 billion and has generated in excess of $1 billion in profit since the acquisition according to the company. Motel 6, which has approximately 1,500 locations throughout the United States and Canada, derived its name from its original nightly rate of $6. The chain opened its first location some 62 years ago in Santa Barbara, California, and was popular with the cost-conscious consumer and was also known for its rudimentary accommodations. Motel 6 is also widely recognized for its simplistic marketing campaign in the 1980s in which company spokesman Tom Bodett uttered the phrase, “I’m Tom Bodett for Motel 6, and we’ll leave the light on for you.” The economy hotel market has been sputtering as of late due to falling occupancy and a lack of an increase in room rates. According to CoStar, the nightly room rate at an economy hotel is $79 and has actually gone down in comparison to last year. Nevertheless, the new proprietor of Motel 6 has indicated the chain will continue to operate as an independent entity, which is good news for those who want to hang on to this slice of Americana.
Matt Savoti, MBA